Obama: The Real Winner in Iowa

Iowa: the traditional beginning of the presidential election season. The first in a series of primaries and caucuses, where one by one, each state votes to decide the candidates who will ultimately represent the two major parties in the fall general election. After months of campaigning and millions of dollars in advertisements spent, the results of the 2012 Iowa Republican caucuses, held on January 3, did not come until the early hours of the morning, when it was finally announced that former Governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney had defeated the former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum (just Google Santorum) by a margin of eight votes (or 0.006 per cent).The biggest winner of the night however, was not even on the ballot: Barack Obama.

Obama benefits in several major ways from the results in Iowa. First, it is clear that the Republican nomination is not wrapped up by Mitt Romney, there is indeed some competition. While Michele Bachmann and possibly Rick Perry are out of the race, it still remains to be seen how long Rick Santorum can hold out. Santorum's social conservative message could very likely find an audience in many of the Southern states, including South Carolina, which will likely be a crucial primary on Jan. 21. For Obama, a lengthy primary means more time and money the Republican candidates are forced to spend on securing the nomination, and thus less time and money, and planning is allocated to the general election in November. This could give Obama a decisive head start in terms of fundraising and organization, handicapping the Republican candidate before the race even begins.

Second, the rise of Rick Santorum (among the rise and fall of a string of anti-Romney candidates) will likely shift Romney further to the right in an effort to attract a larger percentage of the Republican's Tea Party base. Romney has often been called a moderate Republican, and has been criticized by the right wing of the party for supporting several left leaning policies during his tenure as Governor of Massachusetts including abortion and a health mandate. Moving this far to the right, could very well alienate much of the general electorate, especially among the all important independents, allowing Obama an easy path to re-election.  

Most importantly, polls still have Obama leading over all the Republican candidates, including Mitt Romney. No matter who the eventual Republican nominee is, Obama will likely begin the general election with a sizeable lead over his opponent, forcing the Republicans to play catch up from the start. This less-than-ideal context, combined with the effects of a suddenly competitive nomination and an already out of touch party, and an improving economy may doom the Republican race before it even begins.

So, while Romney may have squeezed out a victory in Iowa, it is Obama who will ultimately reap the rewards.