Do spring babies become better Hockey players?

What would you do to ensure your child grows up to be the next Wayne Gretzky?

There is mounting evidence pointing toward the month in which a baby is born and their chance in performing better in Hockey than others their age. The premise is simple, if born early in the calendar year the chances of excelling at hockey is greater – at least statistically. In practice, the relationship is less obvious.

This is one particular area Kelly Lockwood, Associate Professor of Kinesiology at Brock University is researching, with help from Team Canada's and Ice Dog's centreman, Freddie Hamilton. This research recently got Lockwood an appearance on an episode of CTV News.

In fact, of the 22 players which appeared on Team Canada's roster, only seven were born in the second half of the year. Many reasons may exist as to why birth month can affect chances of greater success: they are usually the first to step on the ice and often times the first to be eligible to play due to age restrictions.

This idea isn't very new, Malcolm Gladwell's book Outliers has brought this to a general audience years prior. Throughout it he discusses some of the main drivers behind success, be it in sports, business or positions held. It uses mountains of data to explain some of the factors which improve chances of success.

Hard work isn't dismissed in Outliers. It is still a key factor to overall success, but so are elements sometimes beyond an individuals control. Such as being in the right place at the right time, being born in an optimal month, or being born into more favourable situations. Still, these factors may be just seen as luck.

"Although yes, conception can be pre-planned, many parents won't or don't plan when to have their child based on future success in athletes or relative age effect (RAE)," Lockwood said. The effect is not absolute.

Lockwood has worked with members of the National Hockey League's (NHL) administration and on many research topics involving Hockey. When asked about Hockey Canada and skills development, she had plenty to say.

"One of the mechanisms which Hockey Canada could put in place to dissipate the effect of RAE is to have every kid — regardless of genetics or relative age — provided [an] equal opportunity," Lockwood said. "One of the things we are really highlighting in our work is the importance of skill and laying down the fundamentals [...] really early in life, which aligns with the principles of long-term athlete development – which the hockey system [is beginning to focus on].

"After 1951, [researchers] started to see this effect. [They] began to notice the influence of the Soviet influx of players," Lockwood said. "That's when our skill development programs started, [and] that's when the Russians began heating up the game and we needed to establish ourselves [even more so]."

They found the greatest level of RAE to be in the Ontario Hockey League – that is the highest incidence of players born in the first quarter of the year.

"At the OHL level, it was more than double the amount of players born in January, February and March," said Lockwood. In total 45 per cent of the players were born in the first quarter. Although the effect is somewhat present in the NHL, it is certainly not as strong as in the OHL.

There are correlations with various month of birth and other success indicators as well seen in Outliers. As for the cause of this discrepancy between OHL and NHL and the RAE, Freddie Hamilton had an explanation.

"A lot of the top draft picks coming into the OHL with a lot of hype tend to drop off after a few years," said Hamilton. "There's still a lot of time to mature, between the OHL and NHL. A lot of it is younger babies [...] that have time to mature and catch up, maybe pass their older counterparts that didn't have to rely on skill [instead having size]."

To reduce the discrepancy between young players a new model purposed to Hockey Canada would allow all kids to get an equal opportunity to shine. Bring in all the coaches and kids — regardless of skill or level — to come in and have the same skills taught. That way they would all have the same access and the same opportunity.

Canada's World Juniors ended their tournament with a bronze medal on the world stage.

"[It was] definitely very exciting, seeing all the fans there. Coming out and [the crowd] is all in red, chanting Canada chants," said Hamilton.

"To be honest, I felt more pressure at home, watching it in the past. While playing it, I felt less pressure," said Hamilton. "I'm just happy I got to play when it was held in Canada."