No new AU leader until at least June

In a vote held on Jan. 30, the member states of the AU failed to elect their new leader. Neither of the two candidates, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma of South Africa and Jean Ping of Gabon, secured the two-thirds majority needed to claim victory. A new vote will be held in June, in which neither of the two candidates will be permitted to run.

The African Union (AU), which is made up of almost every nation on the continent, co-ordinates economic and treaty agreements between its member states and seeks to become something similar to the European Union (EU). The AU, in its current form, was formed in 2002 from the ashes of the Organization for African Unity (OAU) and is based in Ethiopia.

Dlamini-Zuma, the ex-wife of current South African President Jacob Zuma, had been the favourite to win the election. Dlamini-Zuma is currently the South African Minister of Home Affairs, and had been a prominent anti-apartheid activist. However, according to Olatunji Ojo, a Brock University Professor of African History, there were a number of factors which conspired against her election.

According to Ojo, one major strike against Dlamini-Zuma was her minimal experience with the AU relative to many other potential candidates. Though she has worked with the AU before, much of her political career has been focused on South African politics.

 "There are many people who see her as an outsider," said Ojo.

A further issue with Dlamini-Zuma is that, despite being divorced from the South African President, she was still largely perceived as being very close to him. As South Africa is economically the most powerful country in the AU, many member states worried that her election would give its government an even more disproportionately influential role in African affairs.

"There are some people who do not want Zuma's wife," said Ojo, "but also many people who did not want to offend South Africa."

"Not all SADCC [Southern African Development Coordination Conference] members fully supported Zuma though none openly expressed opposition. [They would have seen] Zuma's victory as legitimising South Africa's hegemony in the sub-region," Ojo said.

According to Ojo, the stalemate amounted to a compromise between those who feared economic reprisals from a spurned South Africa, and those who did not want Dlamini-Zuma to hold power over the AU. As neither candidate in this election will be able to run again in June, South Africa will have an opportunity to nominate a new candidate that the AU members will have more confidence in, and who will have less obvious ties to the South African President.

"This election was basically to give South Africa an opportunity to save face," Ojo said. "South Africa will most likely present another candidate who has more experience. So long as it's not the ex-wife of the President then that would be allowable."

While the South African candidate is likely to take leadership in June, there are a number of circumstances which could say otherwise. South Africa's economic dominance has made many nations unwilling to give it even more power than it already has. According to Ojo, the countries in Northern, Western and Eastern regions of the continent are much less dependent on South Africa than the countries adjacent to it – meaning that they could thwart the South African candidate by voting as a bloc.

"South Africa has very strong influence over neighbouring states," said Ojo. "Because of its economy, it recruits workers from neighbouring countries, and so contributes to their economies.

"The countries in North Africa do not need South Africa for anything."